Step 1: Check the Schedule and Cheat Sheet

Start your day by checking which games are on the slate. Open the Cheat Sheet to see confirmed lineups, injury updates, and defensive matchup context for every player.

Pay special attention to late scratches — a key player being ruled out can completely change the value landscape for their teammates.

Step 2: Review Top Picks and Elite Picks

Next, check Top Picks for the model's highest-value opportunities. Look at:

The edge — how much does the data disagree with the odds?
The probability — what does the model estimate for success rate?
The confidence — how stable is this projection?

If you have access to Elite Picks, these are further filtered for quality and represent the strongest signals of the day.

Step 3: Validate with Insights

Before committing to a pick, cross-reference it with Insights. Apply context filters (pace, opponent, location) to see how the player has performed in similar historical situations.

Convergence — when the projection, the edge, and the historical pattern all point in the same direction — is your strongest signal.

Step 4: Size Your Bet Appropriately

This is where discipline matters. Not every pick deserves the same stake:

High edge + high confidence — Standard unit (1u). These are your bread and butter.
High edge + low confidence — Half unit (0.5u). The value is there but the situation is volatile.
Moderate edge — Small bet or skip. Not every day has strong plays, and that is okay.

The biggest mistake new bettors make is over-sizing bets on "locks." There are no locks. Consistent unit sizing is what turns edge into profit over time.

Step 5: Track and Review Results

Use the Results page to track how picks have performed over time. Look at hit rates by feature (points, rebounds, assists), by pick tier, and by edge range.

Do not judge the tool — or your strategy — based on a single day or week. Variance is real. A 58% hit rate means you will lose 42% of the time. Evaluate performance over 100+ picks minimum.

What Not to Do

Do not chase losses — A bad night does not mean you should double down tomorrow.
Do not ignore context — A pick with great edge but a key injury you missed is a trap.
Do not parlay everything — Parlays are fun but mathematically harder. Use them sparingly.
Do not bet every pick — Selectivity is a virtue. The best bettors pass on more than they play.